So I've been trying to dig into this a little bit because I'm really confused about what appears to be a budget crisis that is about to his the Robbinsdale Area Schools next year.  I know the economy is down and it's sending everything down in terms of where a school district gets it money but if you dig into one of the presentation's from a recent board there is reason to be even more concerned.

So according to the district, by the 2010-11 school year the district will again be running in the red and facing upwards of 2.1 million in cuts.  This comes after the successful referendum in November 2008 (for seven years).  Because of the recent passing of the referendum it would make sense that the board could not even think about going back to the voters for another one.

(see page 36 of the attached power point presentation for more details)

So how did we get into this mess?  Are we even in a mess?

The answer to this question is very complicated but one thing you might be able to take out of this is that the district may have financially been better off to wait another one or two years before asking for the referendum.  A little history.  2007 referendum failed by a close margin.  The board decided that it would take another stab at a second one the following year but ask for significantly less money.  Was this the best decision - only time will tell - but since it would be absolute craziness to ask for another one next year - they are now in a tough spot.  Waiting an extra one to two years could have actually allowed the school district to ask for the full money they were seeking in the first place.

According to the district at the end of the 2011 school year the district would be operating about 1.3 to 2.5 million in the red.  Both years would have seen a fund balance still in the black - but admittedly it would have been a very small amount.  What we do know is that regardless of a school closing, the district is in the hole for 2.4 to 5.9 million dollars.  (Since they decided to close schools - its a mere 2.4 million that needs to come off the books by the start of 2011.)

How will the voters react?  My guess is that with 4 open seats we are about to see a massive influx of new members.  I would have said Walsh would most likely be the only person to retain his seat after being the only person to initially vote against the PLE/SHE closing.  However, the change of vote will most likely doom his chances of being re-elected.

So what will the new board make up be?  And will they have any chance of change?  My guess is we will see some fiscal watchdogs make their way to the board this year.  Although I don't see them taking all 4 spots - they won't have a majority of the votes so it may not make a difference.  At best the watchdogs will get two of the seats.  The problem is incumbents have the advantage during a primary.  So with only two likely changes to the board I would guess we don't see any major shifts in the board.

What I will do over the next few days is write about what I think the board should be doing to help streamline costs and provide leadership that they are expected to provide.